Contributing
organisations
Asian
Development
Bank
(ADB) African
Development
Bank
(AfDB)
Bank
for
International
Settlements
(BIS)
Cooperation
Council
for
the
Arab
Countries
of
the
Gulf
(GCC) Eur opean
Central
Bank
(ECB)
Eur ostat
Food
and
Agricultur e
Organization
of
the
United
Nations
(F AO) International
Civil
Aviation
Organization
(ICAO)
International
Labour
Organization
(ILO)
Office
of
the
United
Nations
High
Commissioner
for
Human
Rights
(OHCHR) Organisation
for
Economic
Co-operation
and
Development
(OECD) Partnership
in
Statistics
for
Development
in
the
21st
Century
(P ARIS21) United
Nations
Childr en’ s
Fund
(UNICEF)
United
Nations
Conference
on
T rade
and
Development
(UNCT AD) United
Nations
Development
Pr ogramme
(UNDP)
United
Nations
Economic
and
Social
Commission
for
Asia
and
the
Pacific
(UN
ESCAP) United
Nations
Economic
and
Social
Commission
for
W est
Asia
(ESCW A)
United
Nations
Economic
Commission
for
Africa
(UNECA)
United
Nations
Economic
Commission
for
Latin
America
and
the
Caribbean
(ECLAC) United
Nations
Educational,
Scientific
and
Cultural
Organization
(UNESCO)
United
Nations
Entity
for
Gender
Equality
and
the
Empowerment
of
W omen
(UN
W omen) United
Nations
High
Commissioner
for
Refugees
(UNHCR)
United
Nations
Human
Settlement
Pr ogramme
(UN
Habitat) United
Nations
Industrial
Development
Organization
(UNIDO) United
Nations
Office
on
Drugs
and
Crime
(UNODC)
United
Nations
Department
of
Economic
and
Social
Affairs,
Population
Division
(UN
DESA/PD) United
Nations
Department
of
Economic
and
Social
Affairs,
Statistics
Division
(UN
DESA/SD) United
Nations
W orld
T ourism
Organization
(UNWTO)
Universal
Postal
Union
(UPU) W orld
Bank
(WB)
W orld
T rade
Organization
(WTO)
1
The
Committee
for
the
Coor dination
of
Statistical
Activities
(CCSA)
The
CCSA
is
comprised
of
international
and
supranational
organizations
whose
mandates
include
the
pr ovision
of
international
of ficial statistics
guided
by
the
Principles
Gover ning
International
Statistical
Activities
( https://unstats.un.org/unsd/ccsa/principles_stat_ac - tivities/)
and
which
have
a
permanent
embedded
statistical
service
that
maintains
regular
contact with
countries.
The
mandate
of
the CCSA
is
to
ensur e
the
ef ficient
functioning
of
the
international
statistical
system,
to
assist
Gover nments
in
the
development
of
common statistical
standar ds,
platforms
and
methodologies,
and
to
pr ovide
inter -institutional
support,
outr each
and
advocacy
for
high-quality of ficial
statistics.
Mor e
information
can
be
found
on
the
CCSA
webpage:
https://unstats.un.org/unsd/ccsa/
2
Intr oduction
W e
are
pleased
to
pr esent
the
second
volume
of
“How COVID-19
is
changing
the
world:
a
statistical
perspective”.
Since
the
r elease
of
the
first
volume
in
May
2020,
the
COVID-19
pandemic
has
continued
to
rage
ar ound
the
world.
By
the
end
of August,
countries
ar ound
the
globe
had
r eported
over
25
million
cases,
with
nearly
850,000
deaths
attributed
to
the
disease.
The
pandemic
pr esents
tough
choices.
National
and
regional
gover nments,
local
communities,
health
and
school
systems,
as
well as
families
and
businesses
are
being
for ced
to
take
many
difficult
decisions:
How to
r e
open
safely?
How to
safeguar d
people’ s lives
and
pr otect their
livelihoods?
Wher e
to
allocate
scarce
r esour ces?
How to
pr otect those
unable
to
pr otect themselves?
Answers
to
questions
like
these
will
af fect
our
short-term
success
in
battling
the
virus
and
could
have
impacts
for
generations
to come.
Mor e
than
ever , the
world
needs
r eliable
and
trustworthy
data
and
statistics
to
inform
these
important
decisions.
The
United Nations
and
all
member
organizations
of
the
Committee
for
the
Coor dination
of
Statistical
Activities
(CCSA)
collect
and
make available
a
wealth
of
information
for
assessing
the
multifaceted
impacts
of
the
pandemic.
This
r eport
updates
some
of
the
global and
regional
tr ends
pr esented
in
the
first
volume
and
of fers
a
snapshot
of
how
COVID-19
continues
to
af fect
the
world
today across
multiple
domains.
The
r eport
also
highlights
the
impact
of
the
pandemic
on
specific
r egions
and
population
gr oups.
The
information
contained
her ein
is
even
grimmer
than
in
the
first
volume,
confirming
the
unprecedented
impact
of
the
pandemic on
the
economic
and
social
fabric
of
our
societies.
Some
key
findings
are
as
follows:
• T r ends
in
COVID-19
caseloads
dif fer
widely
by
country , illustrating
the
unpredictable
natur e
of
the
pandemic
and
the importance
of
remaining
vigilant
in
our
battle
against
the
virus;
• Global
for eign
dir ect investment
is
now
pr ojected
to
fall
by
as
much
as
40
percent
in
2020;
• Global
manufacturing
output fell
by
20
per
cent
in
April
2020
compar ed
to
the
same
period
of
the
pr evious
year , accelerating an
alr eady
declining
tr end;
• The
pandemic
is
pushing
an
additional
71
to
100
million
people
into
extreme
poverty;
• Globally , the
first
quarter
of
2020
saw
a
loss
of
the
equivalent
to
155
million
full-time
jobs,
a
number
that
incr eased
to
400 million
in
the
second
quarter , with
lower -
and
middle-income
countries
har dest
hit;
• Simulations
suggest
a
steep
and
unprecedented
decline
in
the
Human
Development
Index
(HDI),
undermining
six
years
of pr ogr ess;
• As
r ecipients
of
43
per
cent
of
global
r emittance
inflows,
the
developing
economies
of
Asia
and
the
Pacific
are
especially vulnerable
to
the
global
economic
stall
and
its
impact
on
the
transfer
of
r emittances
by
migrant
workers;
• T o
mitigate
the
impact
of
the
pandemic
in
Africa,
the
African
Development
Bank
has
invested
USD
10.2
billion
to
establish
a Crisis
Response
Facility;
• Data
fr om
31
countries
over
the
period
2014
to
2019
show
that
about
1
in
5
people
r eported
having
experienced discrimination
on
at
least
one
of
the
grounds
pr ohibited
by
international
human
rights
law , highlighting
the
need
for
COVID-19 r esponses
to
ensur e
that
the
pandemic
does
not
exacerbate
existing
forms
of
discrimination;
• Even
befor e
the
pandemic,
women
did
thr ee
times
mor e
unpaid
domestic
and
car e
work than
men;
since
the
pandemic, however , data
fr om
rapid
gender
assessment
surveys
indicate
that
women
in
some
r egions
are
shouldering
the
extra
burden of
an
incr eased
workload,
particularly
in
terms
of
childcar e
and
household
chor es.
The
r eport
also
pr ovides
a
glimpse
of
the
challenges
faced
by
national
statistical
systems.
At
a
time
when
r eliable
information
is mor e
essential
than
ever , many
systems
are
struggling
to
compile
basic
statistics,
due
in
part
to
the
pandemic
but also
because
of a
lack
of
r esour ces
needed
to
moder nize
operations
and
infrastructur es.
The
data
and
statistics
pr esented
in
this
r eport
are
but the
tip
of
an
iceberg.
Readers
are
encouraged
to
visit
the
websites
of
the contributing
organizations,
wher e
they
can
find
additional
information
on
the
impact
of
COVID-19
and
other
topics.
Lastly , we
would
like
to
give
special
thanks
to
the
CCSA
secr etariat
(Statistics
Division
of
UN
DESA)
and
to
the
teams
at
UNICEF and
in
the
Population
Division
of
UN
DESA,
led
by
Mark
Her ewar d
and
John
W ilmoth,
respectively , which
joined
for ces
to
edit
this collection
of
statistical
information
about
the
pandemic.
W ithout
their
commitment
and
dedication,
this
r eport
would
not
have
been possible.
Angela
Me
Chief,
Resear ch
and
T r end
Analysis
Branch UNODC
Co-chair
CCSA
Haishan
Fu
Dir ector , Development
Data
Gr oup W orld
Bank
Co-chair
CCSA
#StatisticalCoor dination
3
T able
of C ontents
4
Differential success in mitigating the pandemic (UN DESA/PD).
............................................................... 8
Global banking up in the initial phase of COVID-19 (BIS)
............................................................................ 12 Need for high-quality data on a timely basis (ECB)
........................................................................................ 14 Aviation standstill with slow and shallow recovery (ICAO).
......................................................................... 16 Working hours drop significantly
(ILO)
................................................................................................................ 18 Small, medium and vulnerable (OECD)
............................................................................................................... 20 Many more children likely in monetary poor households (UNICEF)
.......................................................... 22 Dramatic drop in foreign direct investment (UNCTAD)
.................................................................................. 24 Slow recovery after production slump (UNIDO)
............................................................................................... 26 Disruption of the international postal supply chain (UPU)
............................................................................ 28 About 71 to 100 million people pushed into extreme poverty (WB)
......................................................... 30 Restrictions in exports (WTO)
.................................................................................................................................. 32
Addressing widespread discrimina tion
(OHCHR)
............................................................................... 36 Human Development to decline for the first
time since 1990 (UNDP)
......................................................38 Adequate catch-up strategies to lessen impact on learning (UNESCO)
....................................................40 Forcibly displaced disproportionally affected (UNHCR)
.................................................................................... 42 Violence against women during COVID-19 (UNODC)
...................................................................................... 44 Gender inequality as society’s pre-existing condition (UN Women)
........................................................... 46
Potential risk to remittances in Asia and the P acific
(ADB)
.......................................................................... 50 AfDB’s response activities (AfDB)
.......................................................................................................................... 52 Effects on the EU labour market (Eurostat)
........................................................................................................ 54 GCC countries’ intervention policies (GCC-Stat)
............................................................................................... 56 Impact on poverty and inequality in Latin America (ECLAC)
....................................................................... 58 Impact on older persons in the Arab region (ESCWA)
................................................................................... 60
Impact on censuses of agriculture and mitigation measures (FAO)
.......................................................... 64 NSOs and communicating COVID-19 (PARIS21)
.............................................................................................. 66 Dashboards to monitor the COVID-19 impact (UN DESA/SD)
..................................................................... 68 Data in support of COVID-19 response in cities (UN Habitat)
..................................................................... 70 Responses by National Statistical Systems in Asia and the P acific
(UN ESCAP)
.................................... 72 Maintaining civil registration and vital statistics during the pandemic in Africa (UNECA)
................. 74 The impact of COVID-19 on tourism statistics (UNWTO)
............................................................................... 76
5 COVID-19
6
ECONOMIC IMPACT 10 SOCIAL IMPACT 34 REGIONAL IMPACT 48 STATISTICAL IMPACT 62
C o vid-19
6
#StatisticalCoor dination
7
Differential success in mitigating the pandemic Countries have experienced the COVID-19 pandemic under various circumstances and have adopted a variety of policy responses. Accordingly, they have experienced a wide range of trends in their daily caseloads.
Figure 1. Early epidemics Figure 2. Initial success, ongoing challenges
Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at https://covid-19.who.int/.
All
countries
have
been
challenged
by
the
novel
cor onavirus, but they
have
not
all
far ed
the
same.
Here,
distinctive
patter ns are
illustrated
using
daily
counts
of
new
confirmed
cases
as r eported
to
the
W orld
Health
Organization.
Early
scenarios
of
the
COVID-19
pandemic
often
depicted waves,
including
a
possible
second
wave
in
late
2020.
On
the ocean,
waves
follow
tr oughs
with
a
pr edictable
rhythm.
For pandemic
influenza,
a
summer
tr ough
has
often
been
followed by
a
fall
or
winter
wave.
Y et
daily
case
counts
of
COVID-19 have
followed
various
patterns,
without
a
consistent
summer tr ough
or
a
pr edictable
second
wave.
A
for est
fir e
may
be
a
mor e
appr opriate
metaphor
for
the spr ead
of
COVID-19.
Both
chaotic
and
unpredictable,
a
for est fir e
may
bur n
slowly
in
a
contr olled
way;
it
may
become
larger and
mor e
difficult
to
contain;
or
it
may
rage
out
of
contr ol
like a
fir e
storm.
Airbor ne
embers
may
land
on
dry
wood, igniting
a new
blaze
or
reigniting
an
old
one.
W ind
and
other
factors
may accelerate
the
spread.
Four
countries
with
early
epidemics—China,
the
Republic
of Kor ea,
Italy
and
the
Islamic
Republic
of
Iran—illustrate
the
new metaphor
(figur e
1).
China
and
the
Republic
of
Kor ea
quickly tamed
the
for est
fir e
in
February
and
early
Mar ch
and
have contained
the
blaze
well
since
then.
Italy
contr olled
a
fir e
that raged
during
Mar ch
and
April,
r educing
it
to
a
slow
bur n
in
June and
July . Y et
all
thr ee
countries
have
seen
flar e-ups
in
July
or
August.
Meanwhile,
the
fir e
has
raged
without
stop since
late February
in
Iran,
wher e
containment
remains
challenging.
Like
Italy , several
countries
in
Eur ope
and
elsewher e
r educed a
large
outbr eak
to
a
slow
bur n
but remain
at
risk
for
flar e-ups (figur e
2).
Like
Iran,
in
several
countries,
caseloads
have
been rising
or
remain
at
high
levels
(figur e
3).
Like
China
and
the Republic
of
Kor ea,
some
countries
successfully
mitigated
the epidemic,
maintaining
or
r educing
case
counts
close
to
zer o, but all
remain
at
risk
for
flar e-ups
(figur e
4).
Few
locations
have
seen
epidemics
that
could
be
compar ed to
a
fir e
storm.
The
most
pr ominent
examples
are
cities
or r egions
within
countries
wher e
the
epidemic
initiated
or
was concentrated,
including
Hubei
pr ovince,
norther n
Italy
and New
Y ork
City . For
a
successful
r e-opening,
countries
must
remain
vigilant
in the
face
of
COVID-19.
Just
as
a
single
ember
can
rekindle
a fir e
that
had
been
brought
under
contr ol,
the
virus
can
easily r eturn
to
a
population
wher e
it
had
been
suppr essed.
Stopping
the
uncontr olled
spr ead
of
the
virus
requires
a coor dinated
strategy ,
clear
messaging
and
social
solidarity . Even
without
a
vaccine,
countries
can
take
decisive
action
to mitigate
the
pandemic
and
to
cr eate
the
essential
conditions for
economies
to
r eopen
safely .
8
Figure 3. Rising or high caseloads Figure 4. Few cases, effective
suppression
Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at https://covid-19.who.int/.
Note: • Figur es
pr epar ed
by
United
Nations
Department
of
Economic
and
Social
Affairs,
Population
Division,
using
data fr om
the
W orld
Health
Organization,
Cor onavirus
Disease
(COVID
19)
Dashboar d,
https://covid19.who.int/ (data
last
updated
30
August,
12:47
pm CEST).
Observations
are
7-day
moving
averages;
ther efore,
the
last
data
point
for
each country
corr esponds
to
26
August.
• The
vertical
axes
of
figures
1
and
2
run
fr om
0
to
8,000
cases;
for
figur e
3, fr om
0
to
70,000;
for
figur e
4, fr om
0
to
150.
• Confirmed
cases
are
an
imperfect
measur e
of
disease
dynamics,
both because
they
omit
unr eported
cases
and because
their
tr end
may
dif fer
fr om
the
tr end
in
deaths.
Further
analysis
using
all
forms
of
available
data
is
likely
to
yield additional
insights.
Refer ences : Kristine
A.
Moor e
and
others.
“The
futur e
of
the
COVID-19
pandemic:
Lessons
lear ned
fr om
pandemic
influenza”,
Center
for Infectious
Disease
Resear ch
and
Policy
(CIDRAP),
University
of
Minnesota,
30
April
2020,
https://www .cidrap.umn.edu/sites/ default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1_0.pdf.
NBC
News,
Meet
the
Press,
interview
with
Michael
Osterholm,
21
June
2020,
https://www .youtube.com/ watch?v=d_3cQZQLxJo.
9
Ec onomic Im p a ct
10
#StatisticalCoor dination
11
Global banking up in the initial phase of COVID-19 Bank for International Settlements (BIS) statistics show that global cross-border bank credit surged in the first quarter of 2020, accompanied, in particular, by a substantial increase in foreign claims on the US official sector. In contrast, credit on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) stagnated. Lastly, the pandemic- induced volatility in financial markets contributed to notable jumps in global banks’ derivatives positions.
Figure 1. Global cross-border claims 1
Source: BIS locational banking statistics. 1
Quarterly changes are adjusted for breaks-in-series and exchange rate fluctuations. The annual growth rates are calculated based on the adjusted changes for the last four quarters. 2
Includes claims on international organisations (in addition to claims unallocated by counterparty residence).
Against
the
backdr op
of
the
COVID-19
pandemic,
banks’ global
cr oss-bor der
claims
surged
in
the
first
quarter
of
2020. International
banking
cr edit
is
her e
measur ed
by
the
BIS locational
banking
statistics
(LBS),
which
follow
balance
of payments
r esidence-based
concepts
and
track
the
claims (assets)
and
liabilities
of
banks
located
in
a
particular
country . Cr oss-bor der
claims
r ose
(on
a
br eak-
and
exchange
rate- adjusted
basis)
by
$2.6
trillion
in
Q1
2020
(figur e
1).
This incr eased
their
year -on-year
gr owth rate
to
10%
at
end-Mar ch 2020,
up
fr om
6%
a
quarter
befor e.
Claims
on
borrowers
in advanced
economies,
esp.
the
United
States,
and
of fshor e financial
centr es
expanded
the
most.
Another
BIS
dataset,
the
consolidated
banking
statistics (CBS),
tracks
the
globally
consolidated
positions
of
banks headquarter ed
in
a
given
country . They
cover
global
banks’ for eign
claims—i.e.,
cr oss-bor der
claims
and
local
claims booked
by
af filiates
abroad
(excluding
inter -of fice
positions).
These
data
show
that
non-US
banks’
for eign
claims
on
the United
States
surged
by
nearly
$950
billion
in
Q1
2020,
the largest
quarterly
incr ease
on
r ecor d.
Their
local
claims
in
local curr encies—i.e.,
dollar -denominated
claims
on
US
r esidents booked
by
the
US-based
af filiates
of
non-US
banks— accounted
for
much
of
this
expansion.
12
Figure 2. Claims on EMDEs
Source: BIS locational banking statistics; BIS consolidated banking statistics on a guarantor basis. 1
Data at end-4Q 2019.
A
key
factor
was
the
significant
rise
(by
$560
billion)
observed for
non-US
banks’
for eign
claims
on
the
US
of ficial
sector , which
includes
the
US
gover nment
and
the
Federal
Reserve (US
data
show
that
non-US
banks’
branches
and
agencies
in the
United
States
held
$870
billion
of
reserves
at
the
Federal Reserve
at
end-Q1
2020,
up
fr om
$550
billion
at
end-2019).
The
annual
gr owth
rate
of
cr oss-bor der
claims
on
EMDEs continued
to
decline
fr om
alr eady
low
levels:
it
fell
to
1.8%
as of
end-Mar ch
2020,
compar ed
to
3.7%
at
mid-2019 (figur e
2, left-hand
panel).
For eign
bank
lending
to
EMDEs
is
highly
concentrated
(figur e 2, right-hand
panel).
At
end-Mar ch
2020,
five
bank
nationalities (UK,
US,
Japanese,
Spanish
and
Fr ench
banks)
accounted
for almost
two
thir ds
of
all
for eign
claims
on
EMDEs
(blue
bars).
The
CBS
also
r eveal
a
significant
incr ease
in
the
market
value of
banks’
derivatives
positions
at
the
time
of
the
pandemic escalation.
This
is
likely
to
have
r eflected
the
bout of
market volatility
observed
in
the
first
quarter
of
2020,
which
widened the
gap
between
market
and
contract
prices
and
pushed derivatives
contracts
“into
the
money”
for
either
the
r eporting banks
or
their
counterparties.
Metadata: • BIS
internationa l
bankin g
statistics
cover
the
balance
sheets
of
internationally
active
banks.
The
locational
statistics
pro - vide
information
about
the
geographical
and
curr ency
composition
of
banks’
assets
and
liabilities,
including
intragr oup business.
The
consolidated
statistics
measur e
banks’
country
risk
exposur es
on
a
worldwide
consolidated
basis.
Both data
sets
are
collected
under
the
auspices
of
the
Committee
on
the
Global
Financial
System
and
r eported
to
the
BIS
at a
country , rather
than
individual
bank,
level.
Source: • BIS
international
banking
statistics
at
end-Mar ch
2020,
BIS
Statistical
r elease,
22
July
2020.
13
Increase of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme In crisis times there is even more a need for high-quality data to be available on a timely basis. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the national central banks (NCBs) offer assistance to reporting agents to ensure that data remains fit
for purpose. The European Central Bank has introduced a Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) to support the euro area banking sector, firms and households through the COVID-19 crisis.
Table 1. Purchases under the PEPP (Euro millions)
2020
Monthly net purchases
March
15,444
April
103,366
May
115,855 June 85,423
Note: On 4 June 2020 the Governing Council decided to increase the €750 billion envelope for the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme to €1,350 billion.
Table 2. Breakdown of cumulative net purchases under the PEPP
Mar-May 2020 Euro millions
Asset Backed Securities
0 Covered Bonds 3,128 Corporate Bonds 17,620 Commercial Paper 34,845 Public Sector Securities
384,464 Total 440,057
Note: Breakdown of holdings as at end-July 2020 under the PEPP (Figures may not add up due to rounding. Figures are preliminary and may be subject to revision)
Despite
the
current
cor onavirus
pandemic,
the
ECB
is determined
to
continue
collecting
data
on
a
timely
basis
and
of a
quality
that
is
fit
for
purpose.
This
will
allow
the
ECB
to
have the
necessary
statistical
information
at
its
disposal
to
adjust
all of
its
measur es,
should
this
be
needed,
to
safeguar d
liquidity conditions
in
the
banking
system
and
to
ensur e
the
smooth transmission
of
its
monetary
policy . This
statistical
information
contributes
to
the
maintenance
of price
stability
and
the
smooth
conduct
of
policies
pursued by
the
competent
authorities
r esponsible
for
the
supervision and
r esolution
of
financial
institutions,
for
markets
and infrastructur es,
and
for
the
stability
of
the
financial
system.
Many
r eporting
agents
have
adopted
r emote
working arrangements.
Meanwhile,
the
continuity
and
quality
of statistical
information
r eporting
may
be
challenged
by
the
exceptional
cir cumstances
surr ounding
the
performance
of day-to-day
operations
underlying
the
statistical
r eporting.
The
ECB
has
ther efor e
invited
the
national
central
banks and
r eporting
agents
to
find
pragmatic
solutions
within
the existing
legal
framework
to
keep
data
r eporting
within
limits that
are
manageable
for
r eporting
agents,
while
maintaining the
quality
of
the
statistical
information
at
a
sufficiently
high level.
In
case
of
dif ficulties,
r eporting
agents
are
asked
to
contact their
national
central
banks
and
the
ECB
for
assistance.
The ECB
and
the
national
central
banks
cooperate
closely
with other
Eur opean
institutions
and
bodies.
T ogether
with
the r eporting
agents,
the
ECB
will
rise
to
these
unprecedented challenges,
thus
ensuring
that
the
data
and
statistics
requir ed to
support
the
necessary
policy
measur es
are
fit
for
purpose.
14
Link
to
statistics and
metadata : • Statistica l
Dat a
W ar ehous e
website
• Statistic s
webpag e
o n
ECB
website
• Eur o
area
statistics
website
• ECB
and
SSM
websites
Sources : • EC B communicatio n
t o
r eportin g
agents
on
the
collection
of
statistical
information
in
the
context
of
COVID-19,
ECB,
15 April
2020.
• Supervisor y
r eportin g
measur es
in
the
context
of
the
cor onavirus
(COVID-19)
pandemic,
ECB,
15
April
2020.
• Pandemi c
emergenc y
purchas e
pr ogramme
(PEPP)
• Our
r espons e
t o
th e
cor onaviru s
emergency , Christine
Lagar de,
Pr esident
of
the
ECB,
the
ECB
Blog,
19
Mar ch
2020.
15
Aviation standstill with slow and shallow recovery The global aviation came to a halt in the course of wide-scale lockdown and travel restrictions across all regions. Air travel demand was crippled with stagnant recovery anticipating a long shadow of the crisis.
Figure 1. Air traffic
demand decline by region
Source: ICAO ADS-B operational data.
Figure 2. Passenger revenue loss by region
Source: ICAO Economic Impact Analysis of COVID-19 on Civil Aviation.
Since
the
start
of
the
COVID-19
outbr eak,
both
capacity of fer ed
and
travel
demand
plunged.
The
situation
got worsened
alongside
the
widespr ead
of
the
virus.
Following
the global
pandemic
declarations,
air
travel
was
decimated
amidst the
pr olonged
large-scale
lockdown
and
travel
r estrictions enfor ced
in
most
part
of
the
world.
Economic
impact
analysis
of
the
International
Civil
Aviation Organization
(ICAO)
r eveals
that
in
the
month
of
April
2020 when
almost
all
countries
implemented
full
or
partial
lockdown, air
traffic
fell
drastically
to
nearly
zer o
with
unprecedented contractions
of
over
90%.
For
the
first
half
of
2020,
number
of
passengers
dr opped by 56%
compar ed
to
2019,
fr om
2.2
billion
to
1
billion.
Asia/ Pacific
r ecor ded
the
biggest
fall
in
passenger
numbers
by
466 million,
followed
by
Eur ope
and
North
America,
by
342
and
264
million,
respectively . Air
cargo
demand
also
r eached
its historical
low
level,
declining
by
-28%. Demand
for
medical supplies
as
well
as
essential
goods
has
withheld
air
fr eight traffic
fr om
collapsing.
Revenue
str eams
of
the
industry
evaporated.
Accor ding
to ICAO’s
estimates,
airlines
have
lost
appr oximately
USD
160 billion
in
passenger
revenue
for
the
first
six
months
of
the
year , and
airports
and
air
navigation
service
pr oviders
are
expected to
lose
ar ound
USD
52
billion
and
USD
6
billion,
respectively . As
the
industry
continues
to
find
its
way
in
the
wake
of
the pandemic,
gradual
r esurgence
in
air
traffic
was
observed
since May
2020,
driven
mostly
by
domestic
market,
particularly
in China
wher e
domestic
traffic
was
r ecover ed
to
76%
of
the June
2019
level.
International
traf fic,
however ,
r emained sluggish
with
marginal
improvements,
indicating
a
slow
r eturn to
normalcy .
16
Figure 3. Monthly passenger traffic
compared to 2019
Source: ICAO ADS-B operational data.
Figure 4. Evolution of domestic passenger traffic
of China
Source: ICAO ADS-B operational data.
Link
to
metadata : • ICAO
COVID-19
Air
T raf fic
Dashboar d:
https://www .icao.int/sustainability/Pages/COVID-19-Air -T raf fic-Dashboard.aspx
• ICAO
Economic
Impact
Analysis
of
COVID-19
on
Civil
Aviation:
https://www .icao.int/sustainability/Pages/Economic-Im - pacts-of-COVID-19.aspx
Sources : • ICAO
Air
T ransport
Statistics,
ADS-B
FlightA war e
• ICAO
Economic
Impact
Analysis
of
COVID-19
on
Civil
Aviation
17
Working hours drop during the pandemic much larger than initially estimated, with a disproportionate impact on women workers Rising unemployment, working time reduction, temporary layoffs and job-search discouragement lead to an estimated drop in aggregate working hours of 14 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the last quarter of 2019. Women workers are especially bearing the brunt of the crisis, with female employment at greater risk of disruption and an increased burden of unpaid work on women.
Figure 1. Estimated drop in aggregate working hours (Estimated percentage drop in aggregate working hours compared to the per-crisis baseline, 4th quarter 2019, seasonally adjusted)
The
closur e
of
workplaces
and
implementation
of
other containment
measur es,
combined
with
the
rapid
deterioration of
economic
conditions,
led
to
immediate
and
massive
losses in
working
hours
over
the
first
half
of
2020.
The
ILO
has consistently
updated
the
estimates
of
working
hours
losses it
pr esents
on
its
Monitor . The
latest
ILO
estimates
integrate new
data
available
and
point
to
a
considerably
larger
decline in
global
working
hours
in
the
first
half
of
2020
than
initially estimated,
reflecting
the
worsening
situation
in
many
parts of
the
world.
The
new
estimates
suggest
that
workers
in developing
countries,
especially
those
in
informal
employment, have
been
af fected
to
a
gr eater
extent
than
in
past
crises.
During
the
first
quarter
of
2020,
an
estimated
5.4 per
cent
of global
working
hours
wer e
lost
r elative
to
the
fourth
quarter of
2019
(up
fr om
4.8 per
cent
in
the
pr evious
ILO
estimate), equivalent
to
155
million
full-time
jobs.
Asia
and
the
Pacific accounted
for
appr oximately
80
per
cent
of
the
global
r eduction
in
working
hours
duri...